Making Financial Headlines · Page 9
Monthly Forecast Refuses to Impersonate an Annual Result
· New York time
The Dow Jones consensus ahead of September's producer price release expected a 0.6% monthly increase and a 5.5% annual increase, CNBC reports. These were two forecasts with different comparison periods, not rival estimates of the same number. The monthly expectation concerns movement from the previous month. The annual expectation compares with a year earlier. Keeping those units attached is essential when using the figures to understand the release or the policy discussion around it. Economic percentages travel badly without their luggage tags. Put a monthly forecast beside an annual result and they can appear to have had an enormous disagreement, when they were booked on different journeys. The decimal point is innocent; the missing calendar is usually standing nearby looking suspiciously unhelpful.
Read this story in the full newspaper →Satire. Not factual reporting. Read the original reporting from the linked publishers.